Donald Trump’s mounting legal troubles have not dented his status as the clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. In fact, the criminal charges have strengthened his position. Why?
The former US president has been indicted twice in the past four months – once in New York for alleged financial crimes and once in a federal court on charges that he mishandled sensitive government documents and obstructed an investigation.
He may be on the verge of a third indictment, for attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election, and a fourth in Georgia for pressuring state officials to reverse his 2020 defeat there.
Through this all, Mr Trump’s campaign has not just continued unabated, it has thrived.
An average of opinion polls from 31 July suggests he has a commanding lead of 37 points over his nearest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
No-one else in the crowded field of 14 candidates scores over 6%, and more than half of them are not even at 1%.
Back in mid-February, Mr Trump’s lead over Mr DeSantis in the average of polls was just two points (41% to 39%). That turned out to be the Florida governor’s high point so far, however. While his star has faded and his poll numbers have plummeted, Mr Trump’s support has remained rock solid.
And since the first indictment was brought in the first week of April – making Mr Trump the first former US president to face criminal charges – it has actually grown.
According to the average of polls, Mr Trump has been the first choice of a majority of Republican voters ever since that first arrest and court appearance.
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